Parliamentary elections lift consumer confidence in second quarter of 2018

Economic Research | Lebanon This Week | Lebanon This Week 546 | Parliamentary elections lift consumer confidence in second quarter of 2018 | Lebanon | Byblos Bank

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Byblos Bank

Lebanon This Week 546

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Parliamentary elections lift consumer confidence in second quarter of 2018

The results of the Byblos Bank/AUB Consumer Confidence Index for the second quarter of 2018 show that the Index increased by 5% in April from the preceding month, surged by 34% in May and decreased by 2% in June 2018. The Index averaged 74.2 in the second quarter of 2018, constituting an increase of 22% from 60.8 in the first quarter of the year and a rise of 35.4% from 54.8 in the second quarter of 2017. In addition, the Byblos Bank/AUB Present Situation Index averaged 67.5 in the second quarter of 2018 and increased by 14% from the preceding quarter, while the Byblos Bank/AUB Expectations Index averaged 78.6 and surged by 27% from the first quarter of 2018. Still, the average monthly score of the Index in the second quarter of 2018 was 30% lower than the quarterly peak of 105.8 registered in the fourth quarter of 2008, and remained 23.3% below the annual peak of 96.7 reached in full year 2009. 

The successful holding of Lebanon's long-delayed parliamentary elections in May 2018, as well as the outcome of the elections, had a positive impact on household sentiment in the second quarter of 2018. The anticipation by Lebanese citizens that the elections would take place as scheduled, rather than being postponed once again, led the Present Situation Index to improve by 7% and the Expectations Index to increase by nearly 4% in April 2018. The parliamentary elections constituted the first opportunity in nine years for Lebanese citizens to exercise their constitutional right to choose their representatives in Parliament, which gave them a sense of empowerment and raised their expectations for better governance at the national level. As a result, household confidence in May reached its highest level since July 2010. Also, the outcome of the elections led the Present Situation Index to grow by 12.5% and the Expectations Index to jump by 48% in May. In addition, the voters' general satisfaction with the election results improved the Present Situation Index by 10% in June 2018, while the subsiding post-elections euphoria contributed to dragging down the Expectations Index by 8% in June.

The second-quarter results showed a modest improvement in the level of optimism among Lebanese households, as 11.9% of the Lebanese polled expected their financial conditions to improve in the coming six months compared to 10.4% in the preceding quarter, while 58% of respondents believed that their financial situation will deteriorate, compared to 63% in the first quarter of 2018. In addition, 11.2% of the Lebanese surveyed in June 2018 expected business conditions in Lebanon to improve in the coming six months compared to 7.4% in March 2018, while 67.8% of respondents in June 2018 anticipated business conditions to deteriorate relative to 68.3% in March 2018.
 
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