Lebanon This Week 546

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Lebanon This Week 546

July 28, 2018
Lebanon This Week 546
Byblos Bank/AUB Consumer Confidence Index on a Quarterly Basis

Source: Byblos Bank Economic Research & Analysis Department, based on surveys conducted by Statistics Lebanon

  • Parliamentary elections lift consumer confidence in second quarter of 2018
    The results of the Byblos Bank/AUB Consumer Confidence Index for the second quarter of 2018 show that the Index increased by 5% in April from the preceding month, surged by 34% in May and decreased by 2% in June 2018. The Index averaged 74.2 in the second quarter of 2018, constituting an increase of 22% from 60.8 in the first quarter of the year and a rise of 35.4% from 54.8 in the second quarter of 2017. In addition, the Byblos Bank/AUB Present Situation Index averaged 67.5 in the second quarter of 2018 and increased by 14% from the preceding quarter, while the Byblos Bank/AUB Expectations Index averaged 78.6 and surged by 27% from the first quarter of 2018. Still, the average monthly score of the Index in the second quarter of 2018 was 30% lower than the quarterly peak of 105.8 registered in the fourth quarter of 2008, and remained 23.3% below the annual peak of 96.7 reached in full year 2009. 

    The successful holding of Lebanon's long-delayed parliamentary elections in May 2018, as well as the outcome of the elections, had a positive impact on household sentiment in the second quarter of 2018. The anticipation by Lebanese citizens that the elections would take place as scheduled, rather than being postponed once again, led the Present Situation Index to improve by 7% and the Expectations Index to increase by nearly 4% in April 2018. The parliamentary elections constituted the first opportunity in nine years for Lebanese citizens to exercise their constitutional right to choose their representatives in Parliament, which gave them a sense of empowerment and raised their expectations for better governance at the national level. As a result, household confidence in May reached its highest level since July 2010. Also, the outcome of the elections led the Present Situation Index to grow by 12.5% and the Expectations Index to jump by 48% in May. In addition, the voters' general satisfaction with the election results improved the Present Situation Index by 10% in June 2018, while the subsiding post-elections euphoria contributed to dragging down the Expectations Index by 8% in June.

    The second-quarter results showed a modest improvement in the level of optimism among Lebanese households, as 11.9% of the Lebanese polled expected their financial conditions to improve in the coming six months compared to 10.4% in the preceding quarter, while 58% of respondents believed that their financial situation will deteriorate, compared to 63% in the first quarter of 2018. In addition, 11.2% of the Lebanese surveyed in June 2018 expected business conditions in Lebanon to improve in the coming six months compared to 7.4% in March 2018, while 67.8% of respondents in June 2018 anticipated business conditions to deteriorate relative to 68.3% in March 2018.
     

  • Broadband Internet speed in Lebanon is 160th fastest globally, 11th fastest among Arab countries in 2018
    A report published by Cable.co.uk ranked Lebanon in 160th place among 200 countries around the world and in 11th place among 21 countries in the Arab region in terms of broadband Internet speed in 2018. Lebanon's rank improved by three spots from 163rd place globally in the 2017 survey, and by six spots from 17th place regionally in the previous year. Lebanon also came in 42nd place among 49 upper middle-income countries (UMICs) included in the 2018 survey. The data for the survey was collected between June 2017 and May 2018 by research group M-Lab, Google Open Source Research and Princeton University's PlanetLab, and was compiled by Cable.co.uk. 

    The survey noted that it takes seven hours, six minutes and one second to download a 5 gigabyte (GB) high-definition video in Lebanon in 2018. In addition, it takes two hours, 15 minutes and four seconds to download a 5GB video in Bahrain, the fastest rate among Arab countries, while it takes 17 minutes and 41 seconds to download such a video in Romania, the fastest rate among UMICs.

    Also, broadband Internet speed in Lebanon was 1.6 megabytes per second (mbps), up from 1.07 mbps in the previous year, but was significantly below the simple average broadband Internet speed of 9.1 mbps worldwide, of 5.8 mbps among UMICs and of 2.3 mbps in Arab countries. Further, the country's broadband Internet speed lagged the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries' average of 4 mbps and the non-GCC Arab countries' average of 1.7 mbps.

    Singapore has the fastest broadband Internet speed among countries included in the survey with a speed of 60.39 mbps, as the time required to download a 5GB video in the country stood at 11 minutes and 18 seconds. In contrast, Yemen has the slowest broadband Internet speed worldwide with an average speed of 0.31 mbps, as it takes 36 hours, 52 minutes and 20 seconds to download a 5GB video in the country.
     

  • Lebanon ranks 99th globally, ninth among Arab countries in electronic government
    The United Nations' E-Government Development Index for 2018 ranked Lebanon in 99th place among 193 countries worldwide and in ninth place among 19 Arab countries. Lebanon also came in 32nd place among 55 upper middle-income countries (UMICs) included in the survey. Lebanon's global rank regressed by 26 spots from 73rd place, while its regional rank regressed by one spot from eighth place in the 2016 survey. 

    The index is a benchmark that provides a numerical ranking about the development of electronic government across member states of the United Nations. It is a composite indicator that measures the willingness and capacity of national administrations to use information and communication technology to deliver public services. The index is a weighted average of three sub-indices that reflect the most important dimensions of e-government, which are the Online Service Index, the Telecommunication Infrastructure Index and the Human Capital Index. A country's overall score ranges between zero and one, with a higher score reflecting a more developed electronic government system.

    Globally, Lebanon has a more developed e-government system than El Salvador, Ghana and Bolivia, and a less advanced one than the Dominican Republic, India and Jordan among economies with a GDP of $10bn or more. It ranked ahead of Bosnia & Herzegovina and behind the Dominican Republic among UMICs. Lebanon received a score of 0.553 points on the overall index, down from 2.1% from 0.5646 points in the 2016 survey, and constituting the 10th steepest decline globally. Also, Lebanon's score is higher than the global average of 0.549 points and the Arab average of 0.5079 points, while it is lower than the UMICs' average of 0.5655 points. Lebanon's score is also lower than the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries' average score of 0.7483 points, but is higher than the average score of non-GCC Arab countries of 0.397 points. Denmark has the world's most developed e-government system, while Somalia is last globally.
     

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