Private sector deposits down $28bn in 10-month period ending June 2020

Economic Research | Lebanon This Week | Lebanon This Week 643 | Private sector deposits down $28bn in 10-month period ending June 2020 | Lebanon | Byblos Bank

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Lebanon This Week 643

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Private sector deposits down $28bn in 10-month period ending June 2020

The consolidated balance sheet of commercial banks operating in Lebanon shows that total assets stood at $201.1bn at the end of June 2020, constituting a decrease of 7.2% from $216.8bn at the end of 2019 and a decline of 21.4% from $256bn at end-June 2019. The figures are based on the official exchange rate of the Lebanese pound. The year-on-year decline in assets is mainly due to the "netting" on the assets and liabilities' sides of the consolidated balance sheet of banks, as part of the implementation of international accounting standard IFRS 7 starting in December 2019.
 
Loans extended to the private sector reached $41.4bn at the end of June 2020, regressing by 16.8% from end-2019 and by 26% from a year earlier. Loans to the resident private sector totaled $36.6bn, and decreased by 17.2% from the end of 2019 and by 26% from end-June 2019. Also, credit to the non-resident private sector reached $4.8bn at end-June 2020, and declined by 13.2% from end-2019 and by 27% from a year earlier. In nominal terms, credit to the private sector contracted by $8.4bn in the first half of 2020 relative to a decrease of $3.4bn in the same period of 2019, as lending to the resident private sector declined by $7.6bn and credit to the non-resident private sector regressed by $735.6m in the covered period. The dollarization rate of private sector loans fell from 70% at end-June 2019 to 63.6% at end-June 2020.
 
In addition, claims on non-resident financial institutions reached $4.5bn at the end of June 2020 and declined by $2.3bn (-33.3%) from end-2019, by $4.6bn (-50.6%) from the end of August 2019, and by $5.3bn (-54%) from a year earlier. Also, deposits at foreign central banks totaled $486.2m, constituting a decrease of 17.4% from end-2019 and a drop of 50.5% from end-June 2019. In addition, claims on the public sector stood at $24.4bn at end-June 2020, down by $4.3bn (-15.1%) from end-2019 and by $8.1bn (-25%) from end-June 2019. The banks' holdings of Lebanese Treasury bills stood at $13.8bn while their holdings of Lebanese Eurobonds reached $10.4bn at the end of June 2020. The average lending rate in Lebanese pounds was 6.84% in June 2020 compared to 10.94% a year earlier, while the same rate in US dollars was 7.49% relative to 9.49% in June 2019. Further, the deposits of commercial banks at BdL totaled $115.4bn at the end of June 2020, down by 2% from $117.7bn at the end of 2019 and by 19.5% from $143.2bn at the end of June 2019, following the netting operation.
 
In parallel, private sector deposits totaled $144.5bn at the end of June 2020, and decreased by 9% from the end of 2019 and by 16.1% from end-June 2019. Deposits in Lebanese pounds reached the equivalent of $29.1bn at end-June 2020, down by 23.5% from the end of 2019 and by 40.6% from a year earlier; while deposits in foreign currency totaled $115.4bn, as they regressed by 4.5% from end-2019 and by 6.3% from end-June 2019. Resident deposits totaled $116.2bn at the end of June 2020 and decreased by $10.2bn (-8.1%) from the end of 2019 and by $19bn (-14.1%) from a year earlier. Also, non-resident deposits reached $28.3bn at end-June 2020, as they regressed by $4.1bn (-12.7%) from end-2019 and by $8.6bn (-23.3%) from the end of June 2019. In nominal terms, private sector deposits declined by $3.8bn in January, by $3.4bn in February, by $2.1bn in March, by $2.1bn in April, by $1.2bn in May and by $1.8bn in June 2020. As such, aggregate private sector deposits regressed by $14.4bn in the first half of 2020 relative to a decrease of $2.2bn in the same period of 2019, with deposits in Lebanese pounds dropping by $8.9bn and foreign-currency deposits declining by $5.4bn. In comparison, private sector deposits declined by $2.2bn in September, by $1.9bn in October, by $5.8bn in November and by $3.7bn in December 2019. As such, aggregate private sector deposits dropped by $28bn in the 10-month period ending in June 2020, due largely to the repayment of loans, to the hoarding of cash at households, and to deposit outflows. The dollarization rate of private sector deposits was 79.8% at end-June 2020, up from 76% at the end of 2019, and compared to 71.5% a year earlier.
 
In parallel, the liabilities of non-resident financial institutions reached $7.7bn at the end of June 2020 and decreased by 13.1% from end-2019. Further, the average deposit rate in Lebanese pounds was 4.16% in June 2020 compared to 8.8% a year earlier, while the same rate in US dollars was 1.64% relative to 5.84% in June 2019. The ratio of private sector loans to deposits in foreign currency stood at 22.8% at the end of June 2020 compared to 31.9% a year earlier, well below BdL's limit of 70%. The same ratio in Lebanese pounds reached 51.7% at end-June 2020 relative to 34.3% from a year earlier. As such, the total private sector loans-to-deposits ratio reached 28.7% compared to 32.5% at end-June 2019. The banks' aggregate capital base stood at $19.6bn at end-June 2020, down by 6.4% from $20.9bn a year earlier.
 
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