Economic Research | Lebanon This Week | Lebanon This Week 642 | Consumer confidence drops to lowest level on record in second quarter of 2020 | Lebanon | Byblos Bank

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Byblos Bank

Lebanon This Week 642

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Consumer confidence drops to lowest level on record in second quarter of 2020

The results of the Byblos Bank/AUB Consumer Confidence Index show that the Index averaged 19 points in the second quarter of 2020, constituting a decline of 51% from 38.7 points in the first quarter of 2020 and a decrease of 73% from 70.9 points in the second quarter of 2019. The index registered a record low of 20.1 in April 2020 and further dropped to a new all-time low of 15.4 in May 2020, before slightly increasing to 21.6 in June 2020. Further, the Byblos Bank/AUB Present Situation Index averaged 18.9 in the second quarter of 2020 and retreated by 43% from the preceding quarter, while the Byblos Bank/AUB Expectations Index averaged 19.2 and regressed by 54.8% from the first quarter of 2020. The two sub-indices reached their lowest levels since the start of the Index's inception in July 2007.

In addition, the average monthly score of the Index in the second quarter of 2020 was 82% lower than the quarterly peak score of 105.8 registered in the fourth quarter of 2008, and was 65.5% lower than the monthly trend average of 55.3 points. The second-quarter results constitute their lowest level in 52 quarters. 
 
The collapse in household sentiment was due to the government's limited action to address the economic and financial crisis, as well as to the coronavirus-related lockdown measures that worsened socioeconomic conditions. In addition, the Lebanese pound's exchange rate in the parallel market significantly weakened in the second quarter of 2020, which, along with the substantial surge of consumer prices, have reduced the purchasing power of households. Also, the shutdown of the economy due to the pandemic led several companies to cut salaries or, in some cases, lay-off employees, which reduced households' income. Consequently, only 0.6% of Lebanese polled in June 2020 considered that their personal financial conditions improved from six months earlier, while 85.5% of respondents said that their financial situation deteriorated from December 2019. In addition, only 0.1% of the Lebanese surveyed in June 2020 considered that economic conditions in Lebanon improved from six months earlier, while 91.1% indicated that economic conditions deteriorated from December 2019.

Further, the detailed results of the Index's monthly survey reflect the prevailing frustrations of Lebanese households about the absence of measures to improve conditions in the country. Specifically, only 0.3% of the Lebanese polled in June believed that their personal financial conditions will improve in the coming six months, while 85.6% of households considered that their financial conditions will deteriorate by December 2020. In addition, 0.8% of respondents anticipated economic conditions to improve in the coming six months, while 90.3% of respondents expected business conditions to deteriorate by December 2020.     
 
The results of the Byblos Bank/AUB Consumer Confidence Index for the second quarter of 2020 show that the confidence level of residents in the North dropped by 65.3% in the second quarter of 2020 from the first quarter of the year, followed by households in the Bekaa region (-50.3%), the South (-49.7%), Mount Lebanon (-47%), and Beirut (-45%). The sentiment of residents in Beirut was the highest among all geographic regions during the second quarter of 2020, followed by households in the Bekaa, Mount Lebanon, the South and the North. Also, the confidence level of Shiite households dropped by 59.5% quarter-on-quarter in the second quarter of 2020, followed by the sentiment of Sunni households (-51.8%), Christian households (-47.3%) and Druze households (-32.7%). Christian households registered the highest level of confidence in the second quarter of 2020, followed by Druze, Sunni and Shiite households.
 
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