Lebanon This Week 568

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Lebanon This Week 568

January 19, 2019
Lebanon This Week 568

External Debt Performance in Middle East & Africa in ِDecember 2018 (%)

 

Source: ICE, Byblos Research


  • External bonds post third highest return in emerging markets in December 2018
    Figures issued by Intercontinental Exchange, Inc. (ICE) indicate that Lebanon's external debt posted a return of 3.67% in December 2018, constituting the second highest return among 27 countries in the Middle East & Africa region, as well as among 44 markets in the Central & Eastern Europe and the Middle East & Africa (CEEMEA) region after Turkey (+4.82%). It also registered the third highest return among 76 emerging markets included in ICE's External Debt EM Sovereign Index, behind Turkey and Sri Lanka (+3.82%). 

    Lebanon outperformed the emerging markets' return of 1.28%, and the 'B'- rated sovereigns' return of zero percent in December 2018.

    Further, Lebanon has a weight of 2.37% on ICE's External Debt EM Sovereign Index, the seventh largest weight in the CEEMEA universe and the 13th largest among emerging economies. Lebanon accounted for 4.2% of allocations in the CEEMEA region.

    In parallel, figures issued by Citi Research indicate that Lebanon's external sovereign debt posted a return of 1.8% in December 2018, constituting, along with Morocco, the third highest return among 21 countries in the Middle East & Africa region, behind Kuwait and South Africa (+2% each). It also registered, along with Hungary and Morocco, the 13th highest return among 52 emerging markets included in the Citi EM Sovereign Bond Index. Lebanon outperformed the emerging markets' return of 1.3%, the 'B'-rated sovereigns' return of 0.6% and the speculative grade sovereigns' return of 0.9% during the covered month.
     

  • Cost of sending remittances from the United States, France and the United Kingdom decline in fourth quarter of 2018
    Figures issued by the World Bank show that the cost of sending $500 in remittances from the United States to Lebanon reached 5.54% in the fourth quarter of 2018 relative to 5.62% in the third quarter of 2018 and to 5.93% in the fourth quarter of 2017. The cost includes the transaction fee and exchange rate margin, and represents the average cost of transferring money through commercial banks and money transfer operators. In nominal terms, the cost of sending $500 from the U.S. to Lebanon was $27.71 in the fourth quarter of 2018 compared to $28.1 in the preceding quarter and to $29.65 in the fourth quarter of 2017. Lebanon is the ninth most expensive destination for sending $500 from the U.S. among 42 countries with available data.

    Further, the cost of sending remittances from Canada to Lebanon was 7.73% in the fourth quarter of 2018 for a transfer of CAD500, up from 7.39% in the third quarter of 2018 and relative to 6.16% in the fourth quarter of 2017. In nominal terms, the cost of sending CAD500 from Canada to Lebanon was CAD38.64 in the fourth quarter of 2018 relative to CAD36.94 in the previous quarter and to CAD30.79 in the fourth quarter of 2017. Lebanon is the third most expensive destination for sending CAD500 from Canada among 15 countries with available data.

    Also, the cost of sending remittances from Australia to Lebanon reached 6.92% in the fourth quarter of 2018 for a transfer of AUD500, up from 6.82% % in the third quarter of 2018 and relative to 7.32% in the fourth quarter of 2017. The cost of sending AUD500 from Australia to Lebanon was AUD34.58 in the fourth quarter of 2018 relative to AUD34.08 in the preceding quarter and to AUD36.61 in the fourth quarter of 2017. Lebanon is the sixth most expensive destination for sending AUD500 from Australia among 16 countries with available data.
     

  • New car sales down 11% in 2018
    Figures released by the Association of Automobile Importers in Lebanon show that dealers sold 33,012 new passenger cars in 2018, constituting a decline of 11.4% from 37,222 cars sold in the same period of 2017. Individuals and institutional clients purchased 2,489 new cars in January, 2,256 new vehicles in February, 2,900 automobiles in March, 2,539 new cars in April, 2,862 vehicles in May, 4,162 new automobiles in June, 3,665 new cars in July, 2,772 vehicles in August, 2,436 new cars in September, 2,509 vehicles in October, 2,195 new automobiles in November, and 2,227 cars in December 2018.

    Japanese cars accounted for 40.7% of total car sales in 2018, followed by Korean vehicles with a 28.3% share, European automobiles (19.5%), American cars (8.6%) and Chinese vehicles (2.9%). The sales of new Chinese vehicles surged by 1.9 times year-on-year last year. In contrast, demand for Korean vehicles dropped by 25.8%, the sales of European automobiles decreased by 13.5%, the number of American cars sold declined by 4.2% and demand for Japanese automobiles regressed by 2.1% year-on-year in 2018.

    Kia is the leading brand in the Lebanese market with 5,012 passenger vehicles sold in 2018, followed by Hyundai with 4,319 new cars sold, Toyota (4,155), Nissan (3,995) and Chevrolet (1,676). In parallel, car dealers sold 2,289 new commercial vehicles last year, down by 13.3% from 2,641 commercial vehicles purchased in 2017. Overall, car dealers sold 35,301 new passenger cars and commercial vehicles in 2018, down by 11.4% from 39,863 cars sold a year earlier.
     

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