Lebanon This Week 542

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Lebanon This Week 542

June 30, 2018
Lebanon This Week 542

  • Lebanon ranks 81st globally, 10th among Arab countries in transparency of real estate sector
    Jones Lang LaSalle's Global Real Estate Transparency Index for 2018 ranked Lebanon in 81st place among 100 countries and markets worldwide and in 10th place among 15 Arab countries and markets included in the survey. Lebanon also came in 23rd place among 29 upper-middle income economies (UMICs). Based on the same set of countries and markets included in the 2016 and 2018 surveys, Lebanon's rank changed from 83rd place in 2016 to 81st place in 2018.

    The index, which is issued every two years, measures national real estate transparency across the globe and is used to compare transparency conditions across markets. It highlights the important differences in transactions processes, property rights and the regulatory and legal environment around the world. It also aims to provide international benchmarks to cross-border investors, developers and occupiers of real estate, as well as government and industry bodies, in order to measure and improve transparency in their markets.

    Jones Lang LaSalle compiled the index from 186 quantitative and qualitative transparency measures that are grouped into 14 major topic areas, which are, in turn, grouped into six sub-indices. The six sub-indices are Performance Measurement that has a weight of 28.5%, Market Fundamentals (16.5%), Governance of Listed Investment Vehicles (10%), Regulatory & Legal Issues (25%), the Transaction Process (15%) and Sustainability (5%). The index scores range from 1.00 to 5.00 points. A country or market with a perfect 1.00 score is considered to have a high level of transparency, while a score of 5.00 represents the lowest transparency level. The survey then assigns countries and markets to one of five transparency levels that are "Highly Transparent", "Transparent", "Semi-Transparent", "Low Transparency" and "Opaque". 

    Globally, Lebanon's real estate market is more transparent than markets in Oman, Tunisia and Uganda, and is less transparent than markets in Rwanda, Ecuador and Panama. It also ranks ahead of only Algeria, Belarus, the Dominican Republic, Iraq, Libya and Venezuela among upper-middle income economies. Lebanon received a score of 4.18 points in the 2018 survey compared to 4.06 points in the 2016 study, 3.9 points in the 2014 survey and 3.75 points in the 2012 study, reflecting a deterioration in the transparency level of the Lebanese real estate market. Also, its score lagged the global average of 3.2 points, the UMICs' average of 3.5 points and the Arab average of 3.8 points.

    Further, the Lebanese real estate market came in the "Opaque" category in the 2018 survey, along with 20 other countries in the world that include Angola, Ethiopia, the Dominican Republic and Senegal. The survey downgraded the Lebanese real estate market from the "Semi-Transparent" category in 2012 to the "Low-Transparency" category in 2014 and to the "Opaque" category in 2016.

  • Surveyed economists expect Lebanon's real GDP growth at 1.9% in 2018
    Bloomberg's quarterly survey of economists and analysts about the outlook on the Lebanese economy projected real GDP growth at 1.9% in 2018, compared to a March 2018 forecast of 2%, while it expected growth to accelerate to 2.6% in 2019. The individual forecasts of growth rates for 2018 ranged from 1.5% to 2.5%, while the consensus forecast among 87.5% of participants is that real GDP would grow by 2% or less this year. The results displayed a median real GDP growth figure of 1.9% for 2018. The survey's results are based on the opinions of eight economists and analysts based in Lebanon and abroad. Bloomberg conducted the poll between June 17 and June 21, 2018. 

    Also, participants forecast Lebanon's average inflation rate at 4.3% in 2018 and at 3.8% in 2019. The opinions of polled economists differed on the direction of consumer prices in 2018 with expectations ranging from 3% to 6%, while 87.5% of participants agreed that the inflation rate would be between 3% and 4.5% this year. The poll's results revealed a median inflation rate of 4.2% for 2018. 

    In addition, surveyed economists forecast Lebanon's fiscal deficit at 7.9% of GDP in 2018 and at 7.4% of GDP in 2019. The participants expected the fiscal deficit at between 6.5% of GDP and 9% of GDP this year, with a median of 7.9% of GDP. Further, polled economists projected the current account deficit at 20.7% of GDP this year and at 20.8% of GDP in 2019. The surveyed economists expected the current account deficit to range between 17% of GDP and 25.8% of GDP, with a median of 20.3% of GDP in 2018.

    In parallel, respondents assigned an average probability of 16.7% for Lebanon to enter into recession in the next 12 months. The opinions of surveyed economists ranged between 10% and 20%. The poll's results indicated a median probability of 20% for a recession in 2018.
     

  • Cost of living in Beirut is 65th highest in the world, fourth highest among Arab cities in 2018
    The annual Cost of Living Survey in 209 cities around the world by global consulting firm Mercer ranked the cost of living in Beirut as the 65th highest worldwide and the fourth highest among 17 Arab cities surveyed in 2018. Also, the cost of living in Beirut is the 16th highest among 48 cities in 35 upper middle-income countries (UMICs) included in the survey. In comparison, Beirut was the 52nd most expensive city worldwide and the fourth most expensive in the Arab world in 2017. Beirut's global rank regressed by 13 spots in this year's survey, mainly due the weakening of the US dollar against other major currencies worldwide as the Lebanese pound is pegged to the US dollar, as well as to decreases in rental accommodation costs. 

    The study measures the comparative cost of over 200 items in each location, including the cost of housing, food, clothing and household goods, as well as transportation and entertainment. The rankings are derived from a survey conducted in March 2018. The survey uses New York City as the base city for the index and compares all cities against it. The survey is conducted annually to help multinational companies determine compensation allowances for their expatriate workers.

    On a global basis, the cost of living in Beirut is higher than Bangladesh's capital Dhaka, Brussels in Belgium and Frankfurt in Germany; and is lower than in Dakar in Senegal, Accra in Ghana and the Spanish capital Madrid. Also, the survey considered Beirut to be more expensive than Buenos Aires in Argentina, Rio de Janeiro in Brazil, and Panama City in Panama; while it is less costly than Saint Petersburg in Russia, Bangkok in Thailand and Sao Paulo in Brazil among UMICs.
     

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