BNP Paribas anticipated that the economic recession, wide fiscal deficits and nationalization programs of the local labor markets in Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries will lead to significant departures of expatriate workers, particularly from the public sector. It projected activity in the non-oil sector to contract by 3.4% this year, while it expected the region's aggregate fiscal deficit to reach a record high of 12.7% of GDP in 2020, amid the outbreak of the coronavirus and the drop in global oil prices. It indicated that the construction and tourism sectors, which employ a large number of expatriate workers, along with the oil sector, will be the most affected industries. Further, it noted that GCC countries, particularly those that are dealing with recurrent fiscal deficits and significant pressures on their labor market, have been introducing programs to encourage the employment of nationals in the past few years. It noted that several GCC countries, including Kuwait and Qatar, have already taken initiatives to either reduce the number of expatriates in the public sector or lower their wages. It estimated that more than one million expatriate workers could leave Kuwait by the end of 2020, while it anticipated that about 1.5 million expatriate workers could exit Saudi Arabia and Dubai this year. Further, it indicated that the reduction in the number of expatriate workers will not only affect the least skilled workers in the construction or services sectors, but also intermediate positions. It added that it is too early to predict if the departure of foreign workers will have a sustained and significant impact on the employment of nationals in the GCC.
Source: BNP Paribas