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Lebanon This Week 629

April 27, 2020

  • Banking sector determined to protect all deposits, calls on authorities to focus on real reforms
    The Association of Banks in Lebanon (ABL) indicated that the banking sector has supported Lebanon's financial, economic and social stability over the past three decades. It pointed out that, despite all obstacles, the sector has earned the trust of Lebanese, regional and international depositors and, in turn, has attracted investments and provided liquidity to support the private sector, the government and the Lebanese people for several decades. It pointed out that the funds that Lebanese banks have lent to the government were intended to support the implementation of structural reforms in the public sector, to help develop a proper environment for the private sector, and to improve the standards of living in Lebanon through job creation. However, it indicated that successive governments have failed to take responsibility for the wasteful use of these funds and for putting at risk the deposits of citizens. Further, it pointed out that the government accused banks of earning and giving high interest rates, but the ABL said that the high rates are the result of the government's failure to tackle the instability and risks prevailing in Lebanon. It added that banks have reinvested more than 75% of their profits in the past 30 years to build up their capital base.

    The ABL stressed that addressing the severe liquidity crisis in Lebanon through implementing appropriate policies should be an immediate priority, and added that the solution to this crisis is political in nature. It noted that authorities need to implement policies to restore the confidence of depositors. It considered that a second and crucial step is the accountability of government officials and public sector employees, adding that those who have ordered, executed or facilitated violations should be held accountable. It called on decision-makers in the government to initiate a dialogue with banks and depositors, in order to work out a solution that safeguards depositors’ rights. It added that taking advantage of the liquidity crisis to enforce state control over banks will irreversibly change Lebanon’s economic identity, will be detrimental to the national interest, and will transform the sector into a chronic weakness for the economy instead of its cornerstone.

    Regarding the lifting of the restrictions and the conditions on deposit movements, it pointed out that political authorities need to deliver on their promises to begin reforms and conduct a radical restructuring of the public sector. It stressed that the government first needs to start implementing laws that are already in place and to empower the judiciary in order to improve the business environment and, in turn, restart private sector investments.

    The ABL reemphasized the determination of the Lebanese banking sector to protect all bank deposits. It indicated that banks are ready to help the current government to develop solutions that are in line with the Constitution and with Lebanon's international standing, as well as with the interests of citizens and the trust of investors. It also stressed that Lebanese banks stand alongside citizens, and asked the government to initiate a dialogue with the ABL and with all economic stakeholders, in order to find a solution that would safeguard depositors' funds.
     

  • Expatriates' remittances to Lebanon up 8% to $7.5bn in 2019, equivalent to 13.3% of GDP
    The World Bank estimated the inflows of expatriates' remittances to Lebanon at $7.5bn in 2019, constituting an increase of 7.6% from $6.9bn in 2018, following a decline of 1.7% in 2018. In comparison, remittance inflows to developing countries grew by 4.4%, those to upper middle-income countries (UMICs) increased by 4.2%, and inflows to Arab countries rose by 2.7% in 2019.
     
    Lebanon was the 20th largest recipient of remittances in the world and the 15th largest among 127 developing economies in 2019. Lebanon received more remittances than the Dominican Republic and Romania ($7.2bn each), and Thailand ($7.1bn), and less remittances than Guatemala ($10.62bn), Russia ($10.55bn), and Nepal ($8.1bn) among developing economies. Also, Lebanon was the fifth largest recipient of remittances among 55 UMICs, after China ($68.4bn), Mexico ($38.5bn), Guatemala and Russia, and the second largest recipient among 17 Arab countries behind Egypt ($26.8bn).
     
    Further, expatriates' remittances to Lebanon were equivalent to 13.3% of GDP in 2019, which constituted the 20th highest such ratio in the world and among developing countries, the eighth highest ratio among UMICs, as well as the second highest ratio, behind only Palestine (16.3% of GDP), among Arab countries. 
     
    In parallel, the World Bank projected the flow of global remittances to decline by about 20% in 2020, their steepest decline in recent history, due to the global economic crisis that the coronavirus pandemic triggered. It expected remittance inflows to developing economies to contract by 19.7% to $455bn in 2020, which represents a loss of a crucial financing lifeline for many vulnerable households. Also, it forecast remittance inflows to the Middle East & North Africa (MENA) region to retreat by 19.6% to $47bn in 2020, following a growth of 2.6% in 2019. It attributed the decline in remittance inflows to the MENA region to the economic slowdown worldwide, as well as to the impact of lower oil prices on the economies of Gulf Cooperation Council countries.
     

  • Mobility of Lebanese citizens down 56% amid coronavirus-related social distancing measures
    Citi Research's 'Social Distancing Index' shows that, as of April 11, 2020, Lebanon's general mobility contracted by 56% relative to the period extending from January 3 to February 6, 2020, as a result of the social distancing measures amid the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic. Citi defines general mobility as the movement of individuals within or between different locations in a country. The decrease in the mobility level in Lebanon shows that residents have been under tighter social distancing measures than countries globally (-43%), in emerging markets (-49%), and in the Middle East & Africa (ME&A) region (-53%). 
     
    The index measures the degree of social distancing implemented across countries and regions worldwide in response to the outbreak of the coronavirus. It is based on the results of the Google COVID-19 Mobility Report, which provides mobility trends for people's frequency of visits and length of stay at retail and recreational areas, groceries and pharmacies, parks, transit stations, workplaces, and residential locations. It then compares these trends as of April 11 to the baseline period, which is the median mobility level between January 3 and February 6, 2020. The index is the simple average of four factors that are Retail & Recreation, Transit Stations, Workplaces, and Grocery & Pharmacy. A lower score on the index implies more social distancing, while a higher score reflects less social distancing. 

    The mobility of the residents of Lebanon for the Retail & Recreation category declined by 65% on April 11 from the baseline period, compared to retreats of 57% globally, of 62% among emerging markets, and of 66% in the ME&A region. This category measures the movement of people to places like restaurants, cafés, shopping centers, theme parks, museums, libraries, and movie theaters. 

    Further, the movement of the residents of Lebanon under the Grocery & Pharmacy category, which includes places like grocery markets, food warehouses, farmers markets, specialty food shops, drug stores, and pharmacies, dropped by 31% from the January 3-February 6 period, relative to contractions of 18% worldwide, of 32% among emerging markets, and of 35% in the ME&A region. In parallel, the mobility of Lebanese residents to parks, including marinas and public gardens, decreased by 45% from the baseline period, compared to contractions of 27% globally, of 47% among emerging markets, and of 55% in the ME&A region. 

    Also, the mobility of the residents of Lebanon under the Transit Stations sector, which includes the usage of public transportation, contracted by 78% from the January 3-February 6 period, relative to retreats of 57% worldwide, of 60% among emerging markets, and of 66% in the ME&A region. In addition, the mobility of Lebanese residents to workplaces shrank by 48% from the baseline period, compared to contractions of 41% globally and of 43% in emerging markets and the ME&A region. In contrast, the movement of Lebanese residents to places of residence rose by 16% on April 11 from the January 3-February 6 period, relative to increases of 17% globally and of 21% in emerging markets and the ME&A region.
     

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